Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
